ZIMBABWE’S 30 JULY 2018 HARMONISED ELECTIONS: DAWN OF A NEW ERA OR A REINCARNATION OF THE OLD LEGACY?

The 30^th of July 2018 shall be remembered by Zimbabweans as an important day in the political and constitutional history of Zimbabwe. This is an historical day Zimbabweans will go to the polls to elect the new leadership of the country with a mandate to exercise political power for the next five years. More significantly,the day marks the first time the ruling ZANU PF party goes to an election without its long serving leader, Mr. Robert Mugabe, following his unceremonious overthrow in a military assisted transition and the subsequent installation of his long time political ally Mr. Emmerson D. Mnangagwa. Equally significant is that the leading opposition political party, the MDC, will also be participating in this election under the stewardship of a new leader, Advocate Nelson Chamisa, who rose to occupy the much coveted and contested seat of party President, albeit in controversial circumstances, following the passing on of its longtime leader and former Prime Minister in the 2009 to 2013 inclusive government, Dr. Morgan Tsvangirai.

The demise of Mr. Robert Mugabe in November 2017 has raised mixed feelings among Zimbabweans from all walks of life. Some celebrated the departure of the long time ruler, then viewed by many across the globe as a ruthless dictator, underscoring that his overthrow gave some renewed hope that a better and prosperous Zimbabwe was still a possibility during their life time (it being acknowledged that many had resigned from any hope and leaving everything to fate). Others cautioned that it was too early to celebrate underlining that the assumption of the presidency by Mr. E. D Mnangagwa in a military assisted transition was a serious affront to the values of democracy underpinned by constitutionalism and the rule of law as espoused in the 2013 Zimbabwe Constitution and that this has set a very dangerous precedent on how transfer of political power may be exercised in Zimbabwe in later years.

For a country that has been in political and economic turmoil for almost three decades many Zimbabweans have been left economically impoverished, socially disoriented, and politically disenfranchised. A significant size of the population has skipped the borders of the country due do the challenging economic conditions and sought economic refuge in other parts of the world. Today, you can find Zimbabweans in all the pockets of the globe. On the opposition front, there also has been a lot of misgivings regarding the ascendancy of Advocate Nelson Chamisa to the party Presidency amid accusations that this was in flagrant violation of the party´s founding Constitution. This has also left the opposition fractured as Ms. Thokozani Khupe lead a breakaway faction of some disgruntled party members. This, however, is not the first time the Movement for Democratic Change has been rocked with such desertions – Tendai Biti and Professor Welshman Ncube (now members of the MDC Alliance) as well as Mr. Elton Mangoma once deserted the MDC party during Tsvangirai’s reign.

As Zimbabwe goes to the polls on the 30^thof July 2018, there are mixed feelings across the political divide: could this be Zimbabwe’s political watershed to mark a break with the tumultuous political and socio-economic history or rather it is a reincarnation and continuation of the past albeit with new faces in the driver's seat. There are two major camps at the epicenter of Zimbabwe's political landscape: one representing the Mnangagwa camp (which I shall refer to as the optimists because of the camp's optimism of a better Zimbabwe under the Mnangagwa leadership) and another representing Chamisa (which group I will henceforth refer to as the pessimists on the premise that they view the Mnangagwa administration is a logical extension of the Mugabe legacy, hence, no prospects for a better Zimbabwe under his stewardship). To the optimists (pro-Mnangagwa camp), this election marks the turning point regarding the socio economic and political fortunes of the country. Optimists prefer the continuation of  President E. D. Mnangagwa whom they view as the only competent steward at the present moment with the capacity to turn around the economic fortunes of the country. To them, President Mnangagwa is a mature and experienced statesman full of the much needed charisma and political stature to spearhead the economic strategies needed to run around the economic fortunes of Zimbabwe. These arguments resonate with what the Mnangagwa administration seems to be advocating for since getting into office. Ever since his assumption of the presidency the ‘Zimbabwe is open for Business’ mantra has become one of the characteristic phrases associated with his campaign strategy. For a country in economic doldrums, this is the kind of political message the electorate would want to hear - the language of economic emancipation that would see an improvement on their quality of life.

President Mnangagwa embarked on an offensive drive to put Zimbabwe on the global scene as a destination for foreign direct investments. Over the past few months member of his Cabinet have been sent on diplomatic missions to the United Kingdom, The Netherlands and also to Germany, just to mention a few countries, in a bid to normalise the country's thorny relations with the rest of the global community. We have also witnessed the administration's reengagement drive with view to returning to the Commonwealth after so many of isolation. Normalisation of diplomatic relations with members of the international community is an important initiative which any national leader should undertake on assumption of office. It is important to highlight that there have been some positive responses from the international community to reengage Zimbabwe but using the forthcoming harmonised elections as the litmus test as to whether the current leadership is really serious on rejuvenating Zimbabwe on the path of developmental democratic state. It must, however, be acknowledged that the "Zimbabwe is open for business mantra" is not an entirely new project that came with the Mnangagwa presidency – rather, it is part of the "Easy of doing business" reforms which were initiated under the Mugabe administration with the technical support of the World Bank with a view to improving the business environment in Zimbabwe.

That been said, there are, however, a number of positives that can be attributed to the Mnangagwa administration. Foremost, it is unassailable that there has been a significant improvement in the opening up of the democratic space since the departure of President Mugabe. Freedom of expression and association as well as the right to demonstrate are now being exercised without so much restrictions. All political parties have been allowed to exercise their fundamental rights to freely demonstrate without any restrictions imposed on them which was very unlikely under the Mugabe administration. The withdrawal of the police from the roads whose levels of corruption and thuggery against the motoring public  had reached unmitigated levels was also seen as a welcome development. President Mnangagwa’s pronouncements on fighting corruption were to some extent received as a welcome development although many questioned his sincerity and capacity to decisively deal with this scourge given the fact that many of his inner political circle seems to be escaping scrutiny and that prosecutions seem to be targeting erstwhile political enemies. 

These pro-Mnangagwa enthusiasts view Advocate Nelson Chamisa, as a young, immature and irresponsible person without the much needed political clout and leadership qualities to steer Zimbabwe from its current political and economic quagmire. His political messages and aspirations for a future and prosperous Zimbabwe have been dismissed as purely childish and romantic figments of exuberant imaginations. The opposition is still viewed with much disdain and portrayed as agents of the West who are bent on ensuring the perpetuation of economic sanctions, whose effect has brought untold suffering on the generality of the Zimbabwean population.

Pessimists (the pro-Chamisa camp) on the other hand have expressed serious misgivings regarding the Mnangagwa presidency. They argue that Mnangagwa missed the opportunity to come up with a plan for a better Zimbabwe when he just assumed office as the first citizen of the country especially noting that the overthrow of Mr. Mugabe a result of the collective effort by all Zimbabweans across the political divide and from all walks of life.  To them it was a missed opportunity for an inclusive transitional plan for Zimbabwe. Pessimists underline that the installation of  President Mnangagwa after the July 2018 elections will be tantamount to entrusting the treatment of malaria to a mosquito! Pessimists doubt that President Mnangagwa will ever win a free and fair election given his dented political history. They argue that he has been part and parcel of the political architecture of Mugabe’s administration since independence which has seen the people being pauperized due to mismanagement of resources, corruption and lack of good governance. In fact, he has been Mugabe’s protégé for over five decades until their fallout in November 2017.

The anti-Mnangagwa camp argue that he lack the moral characteristics required for a national leader especially when regard is had to the fact that he has been part of the arsenal that brought untold suffering to the people of Zimbabwe in every dark episode the country has gone through. By way of example, they argue that his name features prominently in all documented reports regarding gross violations of human rights that occurred in the early eighties soon after independence and also during the 2008 harmonised elections period. This camp argue that Mnangagwa is not a reformist who can be entrusted with the leadership of the country. To them, the way he ascended to the thrown in flagrant violation of the time-honoured constitutional principles  is a clear signal that he will not stop at anything that can threaten his removal from office. The pessimists dismiss President Mnangagwa's ‘let bygones be bygones’ language as testament of his unwillingness to decisively with the very challenges that confront Zimbabwe and, hence, creating a weak pedestal to build a peaceful and stable country. Pessimists dismiss the current administration’s opening of the democratic space as an indication of the respect for democratic values, human rights and the rule of law. To them this is nothing but a political gimmick aimed at hoodwinking the international community to believe that  Zimbabwe is now reforming its political systems premised on democratic values. They argue that although the Constitution provide for independent institutions such as the judiciary and the electoral management body, these have been captured by the Executive and hence they are not operating objectively and impartially.

All the arguments being raised from the opposite sides provides interesting insights. It is certainly the case that one of the greatest challenges confronting President Mnangagwa is that of the Mugabe legacy. For a man who man who has been a very close confidant of the former President for over five decades to just come out and say he is a totally different person from the imaged portrayed of him under the Mugabe era is just hard for the people to accept more so given the circumstances under which he assumed political power. This indeed is his greatest challenge and he seem to be aware of this obstacle himself. Since his assumption of office, has tried very much and with success in some instances to introduce some reforms such as opening of the democratic space, fighting corruption, diplomatic engagements with the international community to end Zimbabwe's isolation  as well as to further instill a conducive business environment through revision of laws such as the Indigenization legislation.

These reforms have to some extent helped to portray him as a reformist. his biggest tragedy however is his relationship with the state security architecture. The recent reward of a higher salary increment to members of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces coupled with the seemingly partisan behavior of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission in the way they are handling the electoral processes have left many wondering whether the Mnangagwa administration is not a logical extension of the Mugabe legacy. The utterances of some of the ZANU PF leadership that the "Operation Restore Legacy will only end with the installation of Mr. Mnangagwa as the President of the country on the 30th of July 2018" seriously undermines whatever gains President Mnangagwa had scored over the past few months. Further, some of the traditional leadership in the country has been on record saying that they only support a Mnagagwa Presidency creates serious doubt as to whether the 30th of July 2018 harmonised elections will provide the much needed transition for a better Zimbabwe post the Mugabe error. Today's revelations of alleged vote rigging by members of the Zimbabwe Republic Police, has cast serious aspersions on the sincerity of the current holders of political power regarding their commitment towards conducting free and fair elections in Zimbabwe.

There is no doubt that the 2018 July 30 elections mark Zimbabwe's political watershed. It is a battle between a the old legacy and the new legacy, a generational struggle between the old and the young. It remains to be seen whether the electoral landscape will be level enough to allow for a free and fair outcome. All members across the political divide should exercise restraint, tolerance and find amicable pathways for resolution of electoral disputes lest the country will descend into political conflict much to the detriment of the aspirations of many for a better a better Zimbabwe.